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       "There is something unusual bubbling in Democratic political waters these        days: optimism.
     
       "With each new delivery of bad news for Republicans -- another Republican        congressman under investigation, another Republican district conceded,        another poll showing support for the Republican-controlled Congress        collapsing -- a party that has become so used to losing is considering,        disbelievingly and with the requisite worry, the possibility that it could        actually win in November.
       TimesWatch Tracker: Our Latest Analysis
     Monday, October 23,        2006
Today in TimesWatch:
Anticipating A Democratic Blowout
The Democrats (And The Times) Are Getting Giddy Together As November 7 Looms
~ Posted By: Clay Waters
10/23/2006 1:51:21 PM
       The Democrats and their media allies are getting a bit giddy as the        congressional elections loom, all but declaring victory before the opening        whistle.
   
     You can almost taste the anticipation in the headline to Sunday's        front-page story by Adam Nagourney and Robin Toner, "With Guarded Cheer,        Democrats Dare to Believe This Is Their Time," just one of several        pro-Democratic stories to appear over the weekend and Monday.
   
     "There is something unusual bubbling in Democratic political waters these        days: optimism.
   
     "With each new delivery of bad news for Republicans -- another Republican        congressman under investigation, another Republican district conceded,        another poll showing support for the Republican-controlled Congress        collapsing -- a party that has become so used to losing is considering,        disbelievingly and with the requisite worry, the possibility that it could        actually win in November.
   
     Democrats seem free to speak freely among sympathetic media types: "'I’ve        moved from optimistic to giddy,' said Gordon R. Fischer, a former chairman        of the Iowa Democratic Party. 'I really have.'
   
     "Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, who is in line to        become chairman of the Financial Services Committee in a Democratic House,        offered wry evidence of the changing perception of the race. His office,        Mr. Frank said, has been contacted by a portrait-painting firm offering to        talk about possibilities for the traditional committee chairman’s        painting, one of those perks of power long absent from the lives of House        Democrats.
   
     "'I’ve acquired a lot of new friends this year,' Mr. Frank said. 'And I        haven’t gotten any nicer.'
   
     "For Democrats these days, life is one measure glee, one measure dread and        one measure hubris. If they are as confident as they have been in a decade        about regaining at least one house of Congress -- and they are -- it is a        confidence tempered by the searing memories of being outmaneuvered, for        three elections straight, by superior Republican organizing and financial        strength, and by continued wariness about the political skills of        President Bush’s senior adviser, Karl Rove."
   
     They conclude: "All this has put Democrats in an unfamiliar place, but one        they seem to be enjoying. 'I’m a congenital pessimist,' said Howard        Wolfson, a consultant advising Democrats in several competitive contests        in upstate New York. 'But I’m as bullish on our chances as I have been at        any time over the last 12 years.'"
   
     There are more hoorays for the Democrats in Saturday's A1 story by        congressional correspondent Carl Hulse, "Open Seats Lift Democratic Hopes        in the House." That echoes a September 28 story by Robin Toner, "New Hope        for Democrats in Bid for Senate."
   
     Surveying a House race in Colorado, Hulse opines: "This year, there are 33        open House seats, including three that are vacant at the moment but had        been held steadily by one party, and polls suggest that Democrats have a        good chance to capture enough Republican-held districts to put them well        on their way to tilting the balance of power in Washington."
   
     Hulse implies that Republican issues are stern fear-mongering, while        painting Democratic positions in more flattering terms: "In their closely        watched race, Mr. O’Donnell has sought to emphasize a hard line on        immigration and raise the specter of Democratic tax increases while Mr.        Perlmutter has pressed the need for change in Republican-controlled        Washington and emphasized stem-cell research, an issue he has        personalized, saying it represents the potential for treatment of his        daughter’s epilepsy."
   
     Another story on Saturday from Joyce Purnick sees Democratic gains in the        Republican state of Indiana ("In a G.O.P. Stronghold, 3 Districts in        Indiana Are Now Battlegrounds").
   
     Then there's Sunday's story by correspondent Lizette Alvarez, "In Two New        Mexico Towns, Voices of Concern About the Party in Power."
   
     Alvarez leads off with several paragraphs profiling the paper's favorite        kind of Republican -- an ex-Republican: "Jerry Eller, a Republican        engineer who built his own house in this small town with big mountain        views, voted twice for President Bush.
   
     "But his disenchantment with the Republican Party cuts so deeply that if        the 2004 presidential election were being held this year, Mr. Bush would        not get his vote. 'If Kerry was running this time,' said Mr. Eller, 53,        referring to Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee in 2004, 'I would        vote for him.'''
   
     Abby Goodnough reports from Fort Lauderdale, Fla., in Monday's "Running on        Experience, a Longtime Incumbent Finds Himself on the Defensive," on        Republican Rep. Clay Shaw Jr.'s race with Democrat Ron Klein: "But whether        Mr. Shaw’s strategy will save him or sink him on Election Day is anyone’s        guess.
   
     "Mr. Klein has called Mr. Shaw a lackey of President Bush, prompting Mr.        Shaw to emphasize his differences with the president, whose popularity        four years ago helped Mr. Shaw beat back another tough challenger."
   
     The tone is more negative and foreboding when it comes to a story on        Republicans trying to take over a Democratic stronghold, West Virginia.        Ian Urbina writes from Charleston, in Sunday's "Wealthy Coal Executive        Hopes To Turn Democratic West Virginia Republican." (As opposed to those        impoverished coal executives, we guess.)
   
     "Don L. Blankenship is not the governor of West Virginia. But here in coal        country some say he may as well be, considering the power he wields.
   
     "Mr. Blankenship, the chief executive of the state's largest coal        producer, Massey Energy, has promised to spend 'whatever it takes' to help        win a majority in the State Legislature for the long-beleaguered        Republican Party in a state that is a Democratic and labor stronghold.
   
     "In a state where candidates who win typically spend less than $20,000,        Mr. Blankenship has poured more than $6 million into political initiatives        and local races over the past three years. Mr. Blankenship has spent at        least $700,000 in his current effort to oust Democrats, and the state is        awash with lawn signs, highway billboards, radio advertisements and field        organizers paid for by him."
   
     Urbina brings up unrelated personal issues: "Mr. Blankenship, who received        about $34 million in compensation last year (roughly four times the        industry standard) runs the company from a double-wide trailer just across        the state line in Belfry, Ky. In April, Mr. Blankenship’s personal        housekeeper filed a lawsuit seeking unemployment benefits in which she        accused him of responding with angry fits to infractions like getting the        wrong McDonald’s order or stocking the freezer with the wrong ice cream."
   
     Urbina lets Democrats paint Blankenship in unflattering terms as a        union-buster and despoiler of the environment, while letting Republicans        praise him as a combination of Karl Rove and political donor Richard        Mellon Scaife, making the GOP come off rather cynical.
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